The 2024 Euros are well underway as top contenders Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Italy punch their tickets to the knockout rounds.
While Spain and Portugal have looked unstoppable, former World Cup Champions France has gotten off to a turtlish start in Group D.
With Mbappe breaking his nose in France’s opening win against Austria, French manager Didier Deschamps opted to sit the world’s greatest against the Netherlands. The result? A one-one draw. So… is France still elite without Mbappe? And even if they aren’t, once he comes back… Will that even matter?
As France prepares to play Poland for a spot in the knockout bracket, here are the Top Five Reasons Why France Will Still Win UEFA EURO 2024.
Mbappe is the best player in the world
Despite not scoring against Austria (France won 1-0 on an own goal), Kylian is still Mbappe. That’s it. There’s nothing else to it. He’s the best player playing right now, about as close as you can get to MJ or LBJ in the Euros.
I’m not arguing that the young Frenchman has surpassed Messi or Ronaldo yet – far from it. But today, Mbappe is better than both of them and every other player on the planet right now, even if he can only breathe out of his mouth.
Resting the fifth Ninja Turtle against the Netherlands was smart. Mbappe may not play the whole game against Poland, but if France needs him, nobody can stop him.
Despite Dembele, France has Many Reliable Goal-Scorers
But let’s say Mbappe doesn’t play, just for argument’s sake (of course, he will play, he’s been cleared to… but just imagine.)
Imagine with me that Mbappe doesn’t even play against Poland. Why would France do that? Because they may not even need their recovering star to run up the score on their Polish opposition. Lewandowski is far from in form, and he’s the only Polish player I can name without Google.
So who is going to do the scoring for ze French? While we can certainly rely on Dembele to create/squander plenty of breathtaking chances, it’s the Triangle of Talent in the middle that can rescue Les Bleus.
France’s Midfield is a Triangle of Talent
While this section could be devoted to the highly valuable French defense (et Maignan), I think the real focus of France’s strength is in the middle, between Griezmann, Kante, and Tchouameni. Those three players share two World Cups and two Champions Leagues between them (impressive), and they’re a perfect representation of balancing age with experience (Tchouameni is 24 while Griezmann and Kante are both 33).
All three can score goals, though it’s more the Griez’s specialty than anyone else. But these three form one of the strongest cores in Europe. With core strength like that, France can go far even without their star.
If/When France beats Poland, They Will Face a Weaker Team Next
Whether through Maskbappe or The Triangle of Talent, France will beat Poland. Now, this sets up an interesting situation in Group D. France and the Netherlands are currently tied on everything in group play: matches played, goal differential, and points. So, if the Netherlands beats Austria in their final game (they probably will), it will come down to who creates the biggest goal differential. If they’re still tied at GD, it will come down to who scored the most (or cards or something, who knows?).
It comes down to two possibilities. Scenario A – France wins Group D. Up next, they’ll face the Group F runners-up, either Turkiye or Czechia (and possibly even Georgia, but at this point, does it even matter?). In scenario A, France beats whoever they face from Group F, easily moving on to either play Belgium or Romania. With Belgium in the pits and Romania playing their best football ever, France should easily move on to the semis.
Scenario B – France wins, but the Netherlands wins by more, placing France in second place. In the round of 16, they face either Belgium or Romania (see above analysis), and then face Portugal, next. While Portugal could be a bugaboo, France is more than capable of scraping out a win and moving on to win the UEFA EURO 2024 in Germany.
Mbappe is still the best player in the world.
I know this may seem repetitive, but it’s truly a point worth noting twice. Mbappe, at full power, is that good. Name any player in Europe – Mbappe is better than him (or her). For Americans, let me break it down like this:
France is a bit like the 2016 Cavaliers. Without LeBron, they’re okay at best (that’s extremely generous). With their star, though – nobody can outshine them. For Cleveland, it was their Chosen Son. For France, it’s the guy who just took his talents to Madrid.
Metaphors are never perfect, especially when it’s more of an analogy. But confusing word games aside, Mbappe is that player every team dreams of, one guy who can truly turn an entire game, or tournament, around. With Mbappe still in play, there’s not a team in the world that can stop France from winning the Euros in 2024.
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